Belief Precision and Effort Incentives in Promotion Contests
研究发现，在基于能力感知的晋升竞赛中，努力激励随信念精确度先增后减，存在一个最优精确度水平，挑战了传统职业关注理论中精确度降低激励的观点。
The career concerns literature predicts that incentives for effort decline as beliefs about ability become more precise (Holmstrom, 1982/1999). In contrast, we show that effort can increase with belief precision when agents compete for promotions to better paid jobs that are assigned on the basis of perceived abilities. In this case, an intermediate level of precision provides the strongest incentive for effort, with effort increasing (decreasing) when beliefs are less (more) precise.