The Political Economy of the European Economic and Monetary Union: Political Sources of an Economic Liability
认为欧洲经济与货币联盟(EMU)在经济上是负债,单一货币仅带来微小贸易和投资收益,但会提高周期性失业、可能推高通胀、加剧结构性失业并增加保护主义风险,其推进实为政治联盟目的,且成员国分歧可能引发未来冲突。
EMU would be an economic liability. A single currency would cause, at most, small trade and investment gains but would raise average cyclical unemployment and possibly raise inflation, perpetuate structural unemployment, and increase the risk of protectionism. EMU is nevertheless being pursued in order to create a political union. Fundamental disagreements among member states about economic policies, foreign and military policies, and the sharing of political power are likely to create future intra-European conflicts. A United Europe would be a formidable participant in the twenty-first century's global balance of power, with uncertain consequences for world stability and peace.