Must the growth rate decline? Baumol's unbalanced growth revisited
重新审视鲍莫尔的不平衡增长模型，指出只有当停滞行业生产最终产品时，资源向服务业转移才会导致整体生产率增速下降；若生产中间产品，整体增速可能上升，这对商业服务等快速扩张的行业具有现实意义。
According to Baumol's model of unbalanced growth, if resources are shifting towards industries where productivity is growing relatively slowly, the aggregate productivity growth rate will slow down. This conclusion is often applied to the advanced economies, where resources are indeed shifting towards the relatively stagnant service industries. But Baumol's conclusion only follows logically if the stagnant industries produce final products. If instead they produce intermediate products, the aggregate productivity growth rate may rise rather than fall. This is empirically relevant since the most rapidly expanding service industries, e.g. business services, are producing mainly for intermediate use.