Are individuals entering self‐employment overly optimistic? an empirical test of plans and projections on nascent entrepreneur expectations
研究了新生创业者的期望是否理性，发现他们普遍高估创业成功概率及未来销售和就业，且编制财务预测会加剧这种过度乐观。
Abstract This research examines the rationality of the expectations of nascent entrepreneurs. Consistent with conjectures regarding entry into self‐employment, I find substantial overoptimism in nascent entrepreneurs' expectations, in that they overestimate the probability that their nascent activity will result in an operating venture. Further, for those ventures that achieve operation, individuals overestimate the expected future sales and employment. To explain variations in overoptimism, I posit that those individuals who adopt an inside view to forecasting through the use of plans and financial projections, will exhibit greater ex ante bias in their expectations. Consistent with the inside view causing overoptimism in expectations, I find that the preparation of projected financial statements results in more overly optimistic venture sale forecasts. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.