Firm Leverage, Consumer Demand, and Employment Losses During the Great Recession*
利用美国人口普查局微观数据，研究发现高杠杆企业在面对本地消费者需求下降时，其分支机构就业损失显著更大，且这种效应在县级层面也成立，表明企业资产负债表在传导需求冲击中起关键作用。
Abstract This article argues that firms’ balance sheets were instrumental in the transmission of consumer demand shocks during the Great Recession. Using micro-level data from the U.S. Census Bureau, we find that establishments of more highly levered firms experienced significantly larger employment losses in response to declines in local consumer demand. These results are not driven by firms being less productive, having expanded too much prior to the Great Recession, or being generally more sensitive to fluctuations in either aggregate employment or house prices. Likewise, at the county level, we find that counties with more highly levered firms experienced significantly larger declines in employment in response to local consumer demand shocks. Accordingly, firms’ balance sheets also matter for aggregate employment. Our results suggest a possible role for employment policies that target firms directly besides conventional stimulus.