Central Bank Policy Paths and Market Forward Rates: A Simple Model
研究了央行公布的政策利率路径与市场远期利率出现偏差的原因，并分析这种偏差如何影响宏观经济，帮助政策制定者理解市场反应。
Increasingly many central banks announce likely paths for future policy rates. Recent experience suggests that market forward rates can differ substantially from those announced. Models commonly adopted in policy analysis ignore such differences. This paper studies a simple model that can capture deviations between announced paths and market forward rates. We detail the macroeconomic transmission of such deviations and show how the model can inform policy deliberations.