Tax Refund Uncertainty: Evidence and Welfare Implications
研究发现低收入报税人对年度退税存在较大主观不确定性，这种不确定性会减少其借贷行为，并使劳动所得税抵免的福利收益降低约10%。
Transfers paid through annual tax refunds are a large but uncertain source of income for poor households. We document that low-income tax filers have substantial subjective uncertainty about these refunds. We investigate the determinants and consequences of refund uncertainty by linking survey, tax, and credit bureau data. On average, filers' expectations track realized refunds. More uncertain filers have larger differences between expected and realized refunds. Filers borrow in anticipation of their refunds, but more uncertain filers borrow less, consistent with precautionary behavior. A simple consumption-savings model suggests that refund uncertainty reduces the welfare benefits of the EITC by about 10 percent.