Individual Consumption Risk and the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles
在一个个体面临不完全消费保险的模型中，衡量消除总消费波动的福利收益，发现匹配个体总体风险后，即使只消除10%的总波动也能带来巨大福利收益。
We measure the welfare gain from removing aggregate consumption fluctuations in a model where each individual faces incomplete consumption insurance. We show that, because this welfare gain is a convex function of the overall consumption risk—aggregate plus idiosyncratic—each individual faces, to gauge the magnitude of the gain, it is important to match individuals' overall risk prior to any policy. In an economy calibrated to match individuals' overall risk, even removing 10 percent of aggregate fluctuations can result in a large welfare gain. Further, large gains do not necessarily depend on the countercyclical nature of idiosyncratic risk.