Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed Since the Early 1980's?
发现美国GDP增长波动性在1984年第一季度发生结构性变化，源于耐用品生产波动性降低，且与耐用品库存占比下降有关，对研究经济稳定性和库存管理的学者有参考价值。
In this paper, we document a structural break in the volatility of U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter of 1984 and provide evidence that this break emanates from a reduction in the volatility of durable goods production. Further, the reduction in durables volatility corresponds to a decline in the share of durable goods accounted for by inventories. We find no evidence of increased stability in the nondurables, services or structures sectors of the economy. Our evidence is compatible with a scenario in which changes in inventory management techniques in the durable goods sector have reduced the variability of aggregate output.