Judgmental Forecasting: Cognitive Reflection and Decision Speed
研究发现，在判断性时间序列预测中，认知反思能力强的决策者预测误差更低，且决策过快或过慢都会增加误差，通过调整决策速度可改善预测表现。
This research analyzes how individual differences affect performance in judgmental time‐series forecasting. Decision makers with the ability to balance intuitive judgment with cognitive deliberation, as measured by the cognitive reflection test, tend to have lower forecast errors. This relationship holds when controlling for intelligence. Furthermore, forecast errors increase for very fast or very slow decisions. We provide evidence that forecast performance can be improved by manipulating decision speed.