Learning and Forgetting: The Dynamics of Aircraft Production
利用一家商用飞机公司的新成本数据，发现简单学习假说不成立，而组织遗忘模型更符合实际，即单位成本依赖过去生产经验但经验随时间贬值，且部分经验可跨代转移。
This paper introduces a new cost dataset for a commercial aircraft firm and uses this data to analyze the dynamics of learning in commercial aircraft production. This dataset is found to be inconsistent with the simple learning hypothesis, and particularly the prediction that a firm's unit cost must decline with its cumulative production. Instead, strong support is found for the hypothesis of organizational forgetting, a more general learning model where unit costs are similarly dependent on a firm's past production experience, but where that experience depreciates over time. Additionally, it is found that some, but not all, of a firm's production experience transfers from one generation of an aircraft to the next. This evidence adds to our understanding of productivity in industries with learning and thus has implications to many fields of economics.