Economic Consequences of Housing Speculation
利用州资本利得税差异作为工具变量，研究了2000年代美国住房繁荣期间住房投机对经济的影响，发现投机加剧了繁荣期的价格上涨和衰退期的经济下滑。
Abstract By exploiting variation in state capital gains taxation as an instrument, we analyze the economic consequences of housing speculation during the U.S. housing boom in the 2000s. We find that housing speculation, anchored, in part, on extrapolation of past housing price changes, led not only to greater price appreciation, economic expansions, and housing construction during the boom in 2004–2006 but also to more severe economic downturns during the subsequent bust in 2007–2009. Our analysis supports supply overhang and local household demand as two key channels for transmitting these adverse effects.