The Propagation of Regional Recessions
提出一个框架，从美国各州面板数据中推断共同的马尔可夫转换成分，发现各州经济周期差异主要体现在时间先后上，而非根本性不同。
This paper develops a framework for inferring common Markov-switching components in panel data sets with large cross-section and time series dimensions. We study similarities and differences across U.S. states in the timing of business cycles. We hypothesize that there exists a small number of cluster designations, with individual states in a given cluster sharing certain business cycle characteristics. We find that although oil-producing and agricultural states can sometimes experience a separate recession from the rest of the United States, for the most part, differences across states appear to be a matter of timing, with some states entering recession or recovering before others. © 2012 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.