What does the term structure tell us about future inflation?
实证分析发现，六个月及以下的短期名义利率期限结构几乎不包含未来通胀信息，但能反映实际利率期限结构；而九至十二个月的期限结构则开始包含通胀信息，但不再反映实际利率期限结构。
This empirical analysis indicates that for maturities of six months or less, the term structure of nominal interest rates provides almost no information about the future path of inflation but does provide information about the term structure of real interest rates. However, as maturities lengthen to nine and twelve months, the nominal term structure begins to contain information about future inflation, but ceases to provide information about the real term structure. These results are explained by differences in the relative variability of expected future inflation changes and real term structure slopes at different points in the term structure.