Accruals and the Prediction of Future Cash Flows
基于Dechow等人（1998）的应计过程模型，研究将应计项目分解为应收账款、应付账款、存货、折旧摊销等组成部分，发现各成分能显著增强对未来现金流的预测能力，且优于汇总盈余的预测效果。
Building on the Dechow et al. (1998) model of the accrual process, this study investigates the role of accruals in predicting future cash flows. The model shows that each accrual component reflects different information relating to future cash flows; aggregate earnings masks this information. As predicted, disaggregating accruals into major components—change in accounts receivable, change in accounts payable, change in inventory, depreciation, amortization, and other accruals—significantly enhances predictive ability. Each accrual component, including depreciation and amortization, is significant with the predicted sign in predicting future cash flows, incremental to current cash flow. The cash flow and accrual components of current earnings have substantially more predictive ability for future cash flows than several lags of aggregate earnings. The inferences are robust to alternative specifications, including controlling for operating cash cycle and industry membership.