Sharing Demographic Risk—Who Is Afraid of the Baby Bust?
研究了现收现付养老金制度如何应对人口冲击，以德国经济为校准，发现该制度接近次优解，婴儿潮/衰退周期导致部分世代终生消费福利损失约5%。
We model the reaction of a PAYG pension system to demographic shocks. We compare the ex ante first best and second best solution of a Ramsey planner with full commitment to the outcome under simple third best rules. The model is calibrated to the German economy. We find that the German system comes relatively close to the second-best solution, and that the recent baby-boom/baby-bust cycle leads to welfare losses of about 5 percent of lifetime consumption for some cohorts. We argue that it is crucial for all our results to correctly model the labor market distortions arising from the pension system.