Explaining the Favorite–Long Shot Bias: Is it Risk-Love or Misperceptions?
研究赛马博彩中热门-冷门偏差的成因，通过分析赌徒在简单赌注和复合赌注中的选择，发现概率认知偏差而非风险偏好是主要驱动因素。
The favorite–long shot bias describes the long-standing empirical regularity \nthat betting odds provide biased estimates of the probability \nof a horse winning: long shots are overbet whereas favorites are underbet. \nNeoclassical explanations of this phenomenon focus on rational \ngamblers who overbet long shots because of risk-love. The competing \nbehavioral explanations emphasize the role of misperceptions \nof probabilities. We provide novel empirical tests that can discriminate \nbetween these competing theories by assessing whether the models \nthat explain gamblers’ choices in one part of their choice set (betting \nto win) can also rationalize decisions over a wider choice set, including \ncompound bets in the exacta, quinella, or trifecta pools. Using a new, large-scale data set ideally suited to implement these tests, we find evidence in favor of the view that misperceptions of probability drive the favorite–long shot bias, as suggested by prospect theory.