Testing the Theory of Trade Policy: Evidence from the Abrupt End of the Multifiber Arrangement
利用2005年多纤维协定突然终止这一自然实验，发现美国从中国进口的配额限制类别服装价格下降38%，并出现质量降级，该政策每年给美国家庭带来63美元成本。
Quota restrictions on United States imports of apparel and textiles under the multifiber arrangement (MFA) ended abruptly in January 2005. This change in policy was large, predetermined, and fully anticipated, making it an ideal natural experiment for testing the theory of trade policy. Prices of quota-constrained categories from China fell by 38% in 2005, with smaller declines from other exporters. Prices in unconstrained categories from all countries changed little. We also find substantial quality downgrading in imports from China in previously constrained categories. The annual cost of the MFAto U.S. consumers was $63 per household. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.