International Food Commodity Prices and Missing (Dis)Inflation in the Euro Area
研究发现国际食品价格冲击解释了欧元区近30%的中期通胀波动，并通过工资和汇率渠道加剧了后金融危机时代的通胀缺失谜题。
Abstract Exogenous shifts in international food commodity prices, which are identified using an SVAR model with global harvest shocks as an external instrument, explain almost 30% of euro-area inflation volatility over the medium term and contributed significantly to the twin puzzle of missing (dis)inflation in the era after the Great Recession. International food price shocks have an impact on food retail prices through the food production chain, but also trigger indirect inflationary effects via a depreciation of the euro and, most important, rising wages. Finally, due to asymmetric wage responses, the inflationary effects are very different across member states.