Determining Participation in Income-Tested Social Programs
本文提出一个统计框架，检验仅基于收入分布数据预测社会项目参与率的简单估计是否足够，并用西雅图和丹佛收入维持实验数据验证，发现对于实验型项目，简单估计可能适用。
Abstract Estimates of the number of participants to expect in income-tested social programs may be made from data on income distributions alone. These simple estimates will be biased if the social program induces incentive effects or if some eligible participants do not pursue their application for benefits. This article brings these issues together and sets out a statistical framework for testing whether the simple estimates are likely to be adequate in practice. The data used for the empirical work come from the Seattle and Denver Income Maintenance Experiments, the largest of several similar experiments thus far undertaken. The results imply that the simple estimates of program participation may be adequate if a program of the experimental type investigated here is implemented nationally.