The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather: Comment
评论了Deschênes和Greenstone的研究,指出其因数据错误、使用过时气候预测及利润衡量问题,得出气候变化对美国农业影响可能为负的结论与事实不符。
In a series of studies employing a variety of approaches, we have found that the potential impact of climate change on US agriculture is likely negative. Deschênes and Greenstone (2007) report dramatically different results based on regressions of agricultural profits and yields on weather variables. The divergence is explained by (1) missing and incorrect weather and climate data in their study; (2) their use of older climate change projections rather than the more recent and less optimistic projections from the Fourth Assessment Report; and (3) difficulties in their profit measure due to the confounding effects of storage.