News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries*
利用全球大型油气发现作为新闻冲击的直接观测指标，研究其对开放经济的影响，发现发现后经常账户和储蓄率先降后升，投资立即上升，GDP则延迟五年才增长。
Abstract This article explores the effect of news shocks in open economies using worldwide giant oil and gas discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output—the delay between a discovery and production is on average four to six years. We first analyze the effects of a discovery in a two-sector small open economy model with a resource sector. We then estimate the effects of giant oil and gas discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil or gas discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first five years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, whereas GDP does not increase until after five years. Employment rates fall slightly and remain low for a sustained period.