HAS WORLD POVERTYREALLYFALLEN?
评估了1990年以来世界消费贫困是否下降的说法，通过改变对中国、印度及其他发展中国家初始贫困程度和后续减贫速度的假设，发现全球贫困可能增加也可能减少，取决于假设条件。
We evaluate the claim that world consumption poverty has fallen since 1990 in light of alternative assumptions about the extent of initial poverty and the rate of subsequent poverty reduction in China, India, and the rest of the developing world. We use two poverty indicators: the aggregate headcount and the headcount ratio, and consider two widely‐used international poverty lines ($1/day and $2/day). We conclude that, because of uncertainties in relation to the extent and trend of poverty in China, India, and the rest of the developing world, global poverty may or may not have increased. The extent of the estimated increase or decrease in world poverty is critically dependent on the assumptions made. Our conclusions highlight the importance of improving the quality of global poverty statistics.