An Empirical Analysis of Analysts' Target Prices: Short‐term Informativeness and Long‐term Dynamics
利用1997-1999年分析师目标价数据，发现目标价修订能引起短期市场反应，且长期来看目标价平均比当前市价高28%。
Abstract Using a large database of analysts' target prices issued over the period 1997–1999, we examine short‐term market reactions to target price revisions and long‐term comovement of target and stock prices. We find a significant market reaction to the information contained in analysts' target prices, both unconditionally and conditional on contemporaneously issued stock recommendation and earnings forecast revisions. Using a cointegration approach, we analyze the long‐term behavior of market and target prices. We find that, on average, the one‐year‐ahead target price is 28 percent higher than the current market price.