Durability of Output and Expected Stock Returns
发现耐用品生产商的股票收益比非耐用品和服务商面临更高的系统性风险，做多耐用品组合、做空服务组合可获得年化超过4%的风险溢价，并用一般均衡模型解释了这一现象。
The demand for durable goods is more cyclical than that for nondurable goods and services. Consequently, the cash flows and stock returns of durable‐good producers are exposed to higher systematic risk. Using the benchmark input‐output accounts of the National Income and Product Accounts, we construct portfolios of durable‐good, nondurable‐good, and service producers. In the cross section, an investment strategy that is long on the durable‐good portfolio and short on the service portfolio earns a risk premium exceeding 4 percent annually. In the time series, an investment strategy that is long on the durable‐good portfolio and short on the market portfolio earns a countercyclical risk premium. We explain these findings in a general equilibrium asset‐pricing model with endogenous production.