THE STOCK MARKET, HOUSING AND CONSUMER SPENDING: A SURVEY OF THE EVIDENCE ON WEALTH EFFECTS
综述了时间序列和微观计量证据，分析股票和房价与消费者支出的关系，区分短期和长期联系，并探讨财富效应、共同因果和抵押渠道等假说，对政策制定者评估资产价格变化的影响有参考价值。
Abstract This paper examines the time‐series and micro‐econometric evidence on the relationship between stock and house prices and consumer spending. The time‐series studies distinguish between short‐run and long‐run links between consumption, income and wealth. They allow us to identify which variables adjust to restore the long‐run equilibrium in the case of a shock, and to determine the time taken by the adjustment process. The micro‐econometric literature improves our understanding of the link between wealth and expenditure and distinguishes among the alternative hypotheses – of direct wealth effect, common causality and collateral channel – that have been proposed to explain this relationship. The relationship between wealth and consumer spending appears to be strong, but there is some disagreement as to its size and nature. Furthermore, there appear to be some important differences across countries, which should be allowed for by policy makers when appraising the policy implications of a change in asset prices.