Cross-Sectional PEG Ratios, Market Equity Premium, and Macroeconomic Activity
研究了PEG比率（市盈率与增长率之比）如何预测未来市场回报和宏观经济活动，发现横截面PEG比率提取的风险溢价信息优于传统指标。
This article explores the information content of PEG ratios (price/earnings to growth ratios) for future aggregate returns and economic fundamentals. We first establish an analytic link between PEG ratios and time-varying expected returns of stocks. We then combine the link with empirical asset pricing models to extract market-wide information from cross-sectional PEG ratios. The resultant cross-section estimates of the risk premiums on stock betas serve as proxies for market-wide information. The proxies contain salient information about future market equity premiums and macroeconomic activity both in-sample and out-of-sample. Moreover, the proxies outperform aggregate PEG ratios and the cross-section beta-premium estimate based on conventional valuation ratios and retain incremental power in forecasting future market equity premiums. The results are robust to using various econometric methods for standard error adjustments.