Why is Spot Carbon so Cheap and Future Carbon so Dear? The Term Structure of Carbon Prices
研究了2005-2014年欧盟排放交易体系中碳现货与期货价格的关系，发现2008年后现货碳持续比期货便宜，与全球金融危机和欧洲银行业危机相关。
This study examines carbon spot and futures price relationships and the dynamics of the carbon term structure in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) between 2005-2014. Using spot and futures prices, we calculate an implied cost of carry. According to received theory, the cost of carry is—with some ex-ceptions—just the opportunity cost of money, so that the term structure of the cost of carry should exactly equal the term structure interest rates. However, we show that spot carbon allowances were originally expensive relative to futures, but since late 2008 the situation reversed and spot carbon allowances have been persistently cheap relative to futures prices. This dramatic shift coincides with the onset of the global financial crisis in late 2008 and the ongoing European banking crisis of 2010-2013.