Equilibrium Bitcoin Pricing
通过一般均衡模型分析加密货币定价，发现其基础价值来自未来价格决定的净交易收益，导致多重均衡和外在波动，校准显示比特币收益变化中大部分源于外在波动。
ABSTRACT We offer a general equilibrium analysis of cryptocurrency pricing. The fundamental value of the cryptocurrency is its stream of net transactional benefits, which depend on its future prices. This implies that, in addition to fundamentals, equilibrium prices reflect sunspots. This in turn implies multiple equilibria and extrinsic volatility, that is, cryptocurrency prices fluctuate even when fundamentals are constant. To match our model to the data, we construct indices measuring the net transactional benefits of Bitcoin. In our calibration, part of the variations in Bitcoin returns reflects changes in net transactional benefits, but a larger share reflects extrinsic volatility.