价格水平的货币理论与财政理论:不可调和的分歧

Monetary and Fiscal Theories of the Price Level: The Irreconcilable Differences

Oxford Review of Economic Policy · 2005
被引 28
人大 A-ABS 2

中文导读

比较了价格水平的财政理论(FTPL)与传统货币分析,指出FTPL因提供截然不同的理论而受关注,但研究发现多数情况下货币均衡更可信,且财政与货币协调并非宏观稳定所必需。

Abstract

The fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) has attracted much attention but disagreement remains concerning its defining characteristics. Some writers have emphasized implications regarding interest-rate pegging and determinacy of rational expectations solutions, whereas others have stressed its capacity to generate equilibria in which price-level trajectories mimic those of bonds and differ drastically from those of money supplies. We argue that the FTPL attained prominence precisely because it appeared to provide a theory whose implications differ greatly from conventional monetary analysis; accordingly we review monetarist writings to identify the primary distinctions. In addition, we review recent findings concerning learnability—and therefore plausibility—of competing rational expectations equilibria. These indicate that when FTPL and monetarist equilibria differ, the latter are more plausible in the vast majority of cases. Under Ricardian assumptions, necessary for clear distinctions, theoretical analysis indicates that fiscal and monetary coordination is not necessary for macroeconomic stability.

价格水平财政理论货币主义理性预期均衡可学习性