International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors
使用贝叶斯动态潜在因子模型，分析60个国家产出、消费和投资的共同波动成分，发现世界因子是多数国家经济波动的重要来源，而区域因子作用较小。
The paper investigates the common dynamic properties of business-cycle fluctuations across countries, regions, and the world. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to estimate common components in macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption, and investment) in a 60-country sample covering seven regions of the world. The results indicate that a common world factor is an important source of volatility for aggregates in most countries, providing evidence for a world business cycle. We find that region-specific factors play only a minor role in explaining fluctuations in economic activity. We also document similarities and differences across regions, countries, and aggregates.