DEEP RECESSIONS, FAST RECOVERIES, AND FINANCIAL CRISES: EVIDENCE FROM THE AMERICAN RECORD
利用美国历史数据，研究深度衰退后是否伴随快速复苏，以及金融危机是否影响这一模式，发现金融危机后的复苏通常更快，但存在三个例外，包括当前复苏异常缓慢。
Do steep recoveries follow deep recessions? Does it matter if a credit crunch or banking panic accompanies the recession? We look at the American historical experience in an attempt to answer these questions. The answers depend on the definition of a financial crisis and on how much of the recovery is considered. But in general recessions associated with financial crises are followed by rapid recoveries. We find three exceptions to this pattern: the recovery from the Great Contraction in the 1930s, the recovery after the recession of the early 1990s, and the present recovery. The present recovery is strikingly more tepid than the 1990s. Possible factors to explain the slowness of this recovery include residential investment and policy uncertainty.