A Behavioral Remedy for the Censorship Bias
研究发现管理者在缺货导致销售数据不可观测时，会低估需求（审查偏差）。本文提出一种简单易行的行为纠正方法（REDO），让决策者记录每次需求估计，从而减少偏差并提高库存订购量。
Existing evidence suggests that managers exhibit a censorship bias: demand beliefs tend to be biased low when lost sales from stockouts are unobservable (censored demand) compared to when they are observable (uncensored demand). We develop a non‐constraining, easily implementable behavioral debias technique to help mitigate this tendency in demand forecasting and inventory decision‐making settings. The debiasing technique has individuals record estimates of demand outcomes (REDO): participants explicitly record a self‐generated estimate of every demand realization, allowing them to record a different value than the number of sales in periods with stockouts. In doing so, they construct a more representative sample of demand realizations (that differs from the sales sample). In three laboratory experiments with MBA and undergraduate students, this remedy significantly reduces downward bias in demand beliefs under censorship and leads to higher inventory order decisions.