Referendum Contingent Valuation Estimates: Sensitivity to the Assignment of Offered Values
研究了公投式条件价值评估中，问卷上投标值的随机分配如何导致价值估计的显著差异，表明这种差异可能源于统计效率问题而非行为偏差。
Abstract Contingent valuation methods (CVM) are becoming increasingly popular for assessing the value of nonmarket resources and public goods. In particular, CVM “willingness to pay” estimates are gaining currency for the assessment of damages in environmental litigation. Several studies have compared the value estimates resulting from alternative formats used for CVM survey questions and have speculated on the reasons for observed discrepancies. These reasons now include a whole taxonomy of possible biases. We take a closer look at one CVM format—the referendum—and demonstrate that simply the “luck of the draw” in assigning the referendum thresholds on individual questionnaires can produce a surprisingly wide variety of value estimates. We control for the behavioral biases that confound other comparison studies by using one sample of “payment card” CV data and simulating 200 samples of consistent referendum responses. Due to the inefficiency of the referendum format, we conclude that, where referendum questions have produced different value estimates than other formats, elaborate explanations for the apparent discrepancies may not be necessary.