The Degree of Fiscal Illusion in Interest Rates: Some Direct Estimates
指出以往研究无法推断利率与税收的关系,通过模型直接估计利率对税率变化的反应程度,发现应税利率调整足以使税后收益率不受税率变化影响,且免税收益率也不受税率变化影响,因此利率中不存在财政幻觉。
This article demonstrates why the procedures used in previous studies do not permit inference about the relationship between interestrates and taxes. We present a model that leads to direct estimates of the degree to which interest rates respond to changes in tax rates. The empirical results imply that the adjustment of taxable interest rates has been large enough to render after-tax yields impervious to tax rate changes. Further, tax-exempt yields are unaffected by changes in taxrates. Thus, there is no evidence of fiscal illusion in interest rates.