Anchored Inflation Expectations
构建了一个关于通胀预期低频变动的理论，并用它解释美国等国家战后通胀与通胀预期的联合动态，发现长期通胀预期由短期通胀意外驱动，且取决于近期预测表现和货币政策。
We develop a theory of low-frequency movements in inflation expectations, and use it to interpret joint dynamics of inflation and inflation expectations for the United States and other countries over the postwar period. In our theory, long-run inflation expectations are endogenous. They are driven by short-run inflation surprises, in a way that depends on recent forecasting performance and monetary policy. This distinguishes our theory from common explanations of low-frequency properties of inflation. The model, estimated using only inflation and short-term forecasts from professional surveys, accurately predicts observed measures of long-term inflation expectations and identifies episodes of unanchored expectations.