Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning
用有限理性学习模型解释1980年代多国反复出现的恶性通货膨胀，发现该模型能很好匹配关键典型事实，且不违背可证伪性和理性要求，可用于政策评估。
We use a model of boundedly rational learning to account for the observations of recurrent hyperinflations in the 1980’s. In a standard monetary model we replace the assumption of full rational expectations by a formal definition of quasi-rational learning. The model under learning matches some crucial stylized facts observed during the recurrent hyperinflations experienced by several countries in the 1980’s remarkably well. We argue that, despite being a small departure from rational expectations, quasi-rational learning does not preclude falsifiability of the model, it does not violate reasonable rationality requirements, and it can be used for policy evaluation.