Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation, and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation
研究发现，在趋势通胀为正时，泰勒原则无法保证经济均衡唯一。通过分析美联储在沃尔克反通胀前后的反应函数，发现1970年代美国经济仍存在自我实现的波动，而沃尔克反通胀期间转向均衡唯一，这源于美联储对宏观变量的反应变化和趋势通胀下降。
With positive trend inflation, the Taylor principle does not guarantee a determinate equilibrium. We provide new theoretical results on determinacy in New Keynesian models with positive trend inflation and new empirical findings on the Federal Reserve's reaction function before and after the Volcker disinflation to find that, (i) while the Fed likely satisfied the Taylor principle before Volcker, the US economy was still subject to self-fulfilling fluctuations in the 1970s, (ii) the US economy switched to determinacy during the Volcker disinflation, and (iii) the switch reflected changes in the Fed's response to macroeconomic variables and the decline in trend inflation.