MULTIMODALITY IN MACROFINANCIAL DYNAMICS
估计了经济和金融条件联合分布的演变，发现金融条件急剧收紧时会出现多模态，美国经济通常快速回归“好”模态，但政策失误可能导致多模态持续。
Abstract We estimate the evolution of the conditional joint distribution of economic and financial conditions. Although the joint distribution is approximately Gaussian during normal periods, sharp tightenings of financial conditions lead to the emergence of additional modes. The U.S. economy has historically resolved quickly to the “good” mode, but we conjecture that poor policy choices could lead to prolonged periods of multimodality. We argue that multimodality arises naturally in a macrofinancial intermediary model with occasionally binding financial constraints.