The Intergenerational Transmission of Welfare Dependency
利用挪威行政数据，估计父母领取福利对子女成年后领取福利的平均因果效应上界，发现该上界远低于代际关联和现有文献估计，表明观察到的代际相关性主要源于选择效应，且不同福利项目间存在显著异质性。
Abstract Exploiting rich administrative data from Norway, we estimate non-parametric bounds around the average causal effect of parental welfare participation on children’s welfare participation for children that grew up in welfare-dependent families. We find upper bounds well below the intergenerational association and substantially below existing local average treatment effect estimates in the literature. Our results show that a substantial portion of the observed intergenerational correlation in welfare dependency is due to selection, and that there is important heterogeneity in the intergenerational effects both between participants (and their children) within a welfare program, as well as across different welfare programs.