Managing Consumer Uncertainty in the Adoption of New Products: Temporal Distance and Mental Simulation
研究发现，消费者在远期采用新产品时更关注性能和象征利益的不确定性，近期则更关注转换成本和情感成本的不确定性；基于心理模拟的沟通策略可针对性地降低这些不确定性，提升采用意愿和满意度。
Drawing on theories of new product adoption and intertemporal choice, the authors show in cross-sectional and longitudinal investigations (Study 1) that when adoption is in the distant future, people are more concerned about performance- and symbolic-benefit uncertainties. In contrast, in the near future, the concerns are more about switching- and affective-cost uncertainties. In Studies 2 and 2a, using theories of mental simulation, the authors show that in the distant-future adoption scenario, communication strategies that promote outcome simulations are more effective in reducing performance uncertainty, bolstering positive feelings, and enhancing behavioral intentions. In contrast, in the near-future adoption scenario, communication strategies that promote process simulations are better at reducing switching cost and affective uncertainties, assuaging anxiety, and increasing behavioral intentions. The authors also find positive effects of these communication strategies on actual adoption rates and postconsumption satisfaction (Study 2) and on delayed behavioral intentions (Study 2a). In addition, these communication strategies are more efficacious in increasing behavioral intentions when uncertainty levels are higher (Study 3). The key managerial implications are that communication strategies for new products need to reduce uncertainties about costs and benefits and account for temporal distance to adoption.