Updating Beliefs when Evidence is Open to Interpretation: Implications for Bias and Polarization
提出一个模型，其中代理人观察关于世界状态的信号，部分信号可被解读。决策者先根据当前信念解读信号，再对解读后的信号序列形成后验，这种“双重更新”导致确认偏误和极化。在线实验验证了模型预测。
Abstract We introduce a model in which agents observe signals about the state of the world, and some signals are open to interpretation. Our decision makers first interpret each signal based on their current belief and then form a posterior on the sequence of interpreted signals. This “double updating” leads to confirmation bias and can lead agents who observe the same information to polarize. We explore the model’s predictions in an online experiment in which individuals interpret research summaries about climate change and the death penalty. Consistent with the model, there is a significant relationship between an individual’s prior and their interpretation of the summaries; and over half of the subjects exhibit polarizing behavior.