Inferring Policy Objectives from Economic Outcomes*
推导了识别和估计政策制定者目标函数参数的条件，并应用于美国新凯恩斯粘性价格模型，发现沃尔克任美联储主席期间隐含通胀目标和利率平滑权重均下降。
Abstract Estimated policy rules are reduced‐form equations that are silent on many important policy questions. However, a structural understanding of monetary policy can be obtained by estimating a policymaker's objective function. The paper derives conditions under which the parameters in a policymaker's policy objective function can be identified and estimated. We apply these conditions to a New Keynesian sticky‐price model of the US economy. The results show that the implicit inflation target and the relative weight placed on interest rate smoothing both declined when Paul Volcker was appointed Federal Reserve chairman.