Short-Run Independence of Monetary Policy under Pegged Exchange Rates and Effects of Money on Exchange Rates and Interest Rates
构建一个两国优化模型，分析在钉住汇率制下，货币供给变化如何通过流动性效应影响汇率、利率和产出，并证明即使钉住汇率，各国在短期内仍拥有一定程度的货币政策独立性。
Economists generally assert that countries sacrifice monetary independence when they peg their exchange rates.At the same time, central bankers frequently assert that pegging an exchange rate does not eliminate the independence of monetary policy.This paper examines the effects of money-supply changes on exchange rates, interest rates, and production in an optimizing two-country model in which some sectors of the economy have predetermined nominal prices in the short run and other sectors have flexible prices.Money-supply shocks have liquidity effects both within and across countries and induce a cross-country real-interest differential.The model predicts that liquidity effects are highly non-linear and are not likely to be captured well empirically by linear models, particularly those involving only a single country.The most striking implication of the model is that countries have a degree of short-run independence of monetary policy even under pegged exchange rates.