Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?
用多元体制转换模型分析美国货币政策，发现扰动方差存在时变，但政策规则变化不足以解释1970-80年代通胀的升降，货币目标制在1980年代初和1970年代部分时期重要。
A multivariate regime-switching model for monetary policy is confronted with U.S. data. The best fit allows time variation in disturbance variances only. With coefficients allowed to change, the best fit is with change only in the monetary policy rule and there are three estimated regimes corresponding roughly to periods when most observers believe that monetary policy actually differed. But the differences among regimes are not large enough to account for the rise, then decline, in inflation of the 1970s and 1980s. Our estimates imply monetary targeting was central in the early 1980s, but also important sporadically in the 1970s.