Unemployment, Labor Mobility, and Climate Policy
构建美国经济可计算一般均衡模型，研究碳税对失业的影响，发现跨行业劳动力流动摩擦会显著放大化石燃料部门的失业效应，而碳税收入用于减税可缓解负面影响。
We develop a computable general equilibrium model of the US economy to study the unemployment effects of climate policy and the importance of cross-industry labor mobility. We consider two specifications of mobility costs: either perfect mobility with no moving costs, as is assumed in much previous work, or a model where workers face moving costs. The effect of a $45 per ton carbon tax on aggregate unemployment is small and similar across the two labor mobility assumptions (0.2 percentage points). The effect on unemployment in fossil fuel sectors is much larger under the immobility assumption—for example, a 13-percentage-point increase in the coal sector unemployment rate—suggesting that models omitting labor mobility frictions may greatly underpredict sectoral unemployment effects. Returning carbon tax revenue through labor tax cuts can dampen or even reverse negative impacts on unemployment, while command-and-control policies yield less efficient outcomes.