How Demanding Is the Revealed Preference Approach to Demand?
针对显示偏好方法的一个难题：数据满足其条件时，难以判断这是经济理论的胜利还是条件过于宽松。作者利用Selten（1991）的预测成功度量公理刻画，通过面板数据示例，表明该方法能彻底改变我们对经济理论实证表现的看法。
A well-known problem with revealed preference methods is that when data are found to satisfy their restrictions it is hard to know whether this should be viewed as a triumph for economic theory, or a warning that these conditions are so undemanding that almost anything goes. This paper allows researchers to make this distinction. Our approach uses an axiomatic characterization of a measure of predictive success due to Selten (1991). We illustrate the idea using a panel dataset. The results show that this approach can lead us to radically reassess our view of the empirical performance of economic theory.