How does trade openness influence budget deficits in developing countries?
研究了贸易开放对发展中国家预算平衡的影响，区分了自然开放与贸易政策的不同作用，发现自然开放恶化预算而贸易政策改善预算。
Abstract This paper analyses the effects of trade openness on budget balances by distinguishing the effects of natural openness from those of trade policy. Revealed indicators of natural openness and trade policy are computed. Using GMM-system estimator, the econometric analysis focuses on 66 developing countries over 1974–98. The results show that trade openness increases a country's exposure to external shocks. This enforces the negative impact on budget balances of terms of trade instability. Additionally, trade openness influences budget balances through several other channels: corruption, income inequalities, etc. Then natural openness and trade policy have opposite effects: the former deteriorates budget balances whereas the latter enhances them.