A Nonparametric Analysis of Regional Unemployment Dynamics in Britain
估计了1981-1995年英国县级相对失业率的概率分布，发现分布呈单峰且方差在1989-1994年间下降，并分析了失业状态的转移概率。
This paper estimates the probability distribution of relative county unemployment in Britain for the years 1981-1995. We find that the distribution is unimodal in all years, with a falling variance between 1989 and 1994. We use bootstrap methods to determine critical values for the two tails of the distribution, and analyse intra-distribution dynamics. An unemployment transition is defined as a move between a tail and the centre of the distribution (and vice versa). We calculate transition probabilities and find that the probability of leaving any given state is very low. We also find that high (low) unemployment regions have a higher probability of entering a state of lower (higher) unemployment than a state of higher (lower) unemployment.