Assessing monetary rules performance across EMU countries
本文用多种计量方法评估不同货币政策规则在欧元区国家的表现，发现简单规则效果不错，而加入前瞻性和利率平滑项能进一步改善规则表现。
Abstract The topic covered in this paper is the performance of different monetary policy rules used as guidelines in practical policy making. To this end, different rules are evaluated using alternative econometrics techniques. A comparative analysis is made of the ability of the rules to correspond to the historical central bank behaviour and of the volatility of output, inflation and interest rate changes that they imply. The study is conducted of the EMU countries. The results suggest that simple rules perform quite well and that the advantages obtained from adopting an optimal control‐based rule are not so great. Moreover, the addition of a forward‐looking dimension and of an interest rate smoothing term in the reaction function seems to improve the performance of the rules. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.